FX Daily — 2026-08-20

FX daily report for reference date 2026-08-20. Covers 11 instruments with daily price action, momentum (RSI), volatility (ATR), 52-week range position, positioning, and the central-bank decision horizon. Facts only — reporting, not advice.

CROSS-PAIR SNAPSHOT (as of 2026-08-20, config order)
closeday %RSI (pct)52wk20d ret (pct)pos net%OI (band)
EUR/USD1.16738+0.81%71.5 (97th)49.9%+2.30% (85th)-7.6% (3% of range)
GBP/USD1.35999+0.47%65.8 (92nd)70.4%+1.68% (77th)+15.9% (62% of range)
USD/JPY158.276-0.80%36.7 (11th)67.9%-2.95% (12th)-13.5% (45% of range)
USD/CHF0.79777-1.78%36.4 (14th)60.6%-2.02% (20th)-10.4% (49% of range)
AUD/USD0.7125+0.61%64.7 (89th)82.2%+1.94% (75th)+18.2% (82% of range)
USD/CAD1.38104-0.63%27.8 (3rd)42.7%-1.95% (16th)-25.3% (26% of range)
NZD/USD0.59358+1.07%63.5 (87th)69.1%+2.09% (75th)-34.6% (0% of range)
EUR/GBP0.85828+0.36%58.9 (79th)28.9%+0.60% (65th)+0.4% (97% of range)
EUR/HUF363.79-0.39%56.4 (71st)30.0%+0.26% (56th)
USD/HUF311.74-1.22%44.3 (34th)24.9%-2.06% (26th)
GBP/HUF423.8-0.78%52.1 (57th)35.4%-0.44% (43rd)
CHANGES (vs prior session)
  EUR/USD  RSI 71.5 — crossed above 70 (overbought boundary)
  USD/CAD  RSI 27.8 — crossed below 30 (oversold boundary)
NOTABLE TODAY  (most extreme vs each pair's own history; surprise = how far the reading sits from the pair's own median, 0–100 [0 = at median, 100 = an own-history extreme; = 2×|percentile − 50|] — symmetric, so a deep-oversold reading scores as high as a deep-overbought one — a magnitude, not a trading signal)
  NZD/USD  positioning net%OI -34.6%    (near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -34.6%)) · surprise 100
  EUR/GBP  20d vol 0.154% daily         (1st pct, since 1999 (7166 obs)) · surprise  98
  EUR/USD  positioning net%OI -7.6%     (near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -8.0%)) · surprise  94
  USD/CAD  RSI(14) 27.75                (3rd pct, since 2003 (5946 obs)) · surprise  94
market risk (VIX)  (as of 2026-08-20)
  level       16.01
  change      +1.12  (+7.5%)  (prior 2026-08-19)
  1yr range   13.47 … 31.05 (252d)
  1yr pctile  26th pctile (252d lookback)
dollar index (DXY)  (as of 2026-08-20)  (index close is async vs the pairs' UTC snapshot; daily change may not reconcile with the pairs below)
  level       98.900
  change      +0.070  (+0.07%)  (prior 2026-08-19)
  1yr range   96.220 … 101.610 (252d)
  1yr pctile  48th pctile (252d lookback)
  200d MA     99.189   price below by -0.29%
DOLLAR CROWDING  (weekly-return correlation to DXY, 26w; how much of the book is one dollar trade — async daily closes cap the magnitude)
  6 of 11 pairs correlate |≥ 0.60| to DXY this week
  EUR/USD  -0.84
  GBP/USD  -0.77
  NZD/USD  -0.77
  USD/HUF  +0.69
  USD/JPY  +0.68
  USD/CHF  +0.68
  AUD/USD  -0.49
  EUR/HUF  +0.48
  GBP/HUF  +0.44
  USD/CAD  +0.43
  EUR/GBP  -0.10
equity market (S&P 500)  (as of 2026-08-20)
  level       7641.16
  change      -66.82  (-0.87%)  (prior 2026-08-19)
  1yr range   6343.72 … 7798.99 (252d)
  1yr pctile  95th pctile (252d lookback)
  200d MA     7091.61   price above by +7.75%
=== CENTRAL BANK HORIZON (for pairs at historical extremes) ===
  (days remaining from reference date 2026-08-20)
  >> BoC   2026-09-02  (13 days)   · cross-link: USD/CAD (RSI(14) 3rd pct)
  >> RBNZ  2026-09-02  (13 days)   · cross-link: NZD/USD (positioning net%OI near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -34.6%))
  >> ECB   2026-09-10  (21 days)   · cross-link: EUR/USD (positioning net%OI near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -8.0%)), EUR/GBP (20d vol 1st pct)
  >> Fed   2026-09-16  (27 days)   · cross-link: EUR/USD (positioning net%OI near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -8.0%)), USD/CAD (RSI(14) 3rd pct), NZD/USD (positioning net%OI near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -34.6%))
  >> BoE   2026-09-17  (28 days)   · cross-link: EUR/GBP (20d vol 1st pct)