NZD/USD: positioning -34.6%

On 2026-08-20, NZD/USD closed at 0.59358, up 1.07% on the day. It trades at 69.1% of its 52-week range. Its RSI(14) of 63.50 is in the 87th percentile of its history since 2003, and its 20-day return of +2.09% in the 75th percentile. Leveraged-money positioning is net -34.6% of open interest, at 0% of its own two-year positioning range. It is trading above its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 0.58589 / 0.57942 / 0.58355, with price +1.31% / +2.44% / +1.72% against them. Its 52-week range is 0.55842–0.60933; it closed 2.58% below the high and 6.30% above the low. Its 20-day volatility is 0.522% daily, in the 23rd percentile of its history since 2003. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 0.00512 (51.2 pips), 0.86% of price. It has returned +1.27% over 5 days and +0.74% over 60 days.

=== NZD/USD  (pip 0.0001) ===
  >> close 0.59358  +1.071%   · price > all MAs; positioning net%OI -34.6% (near bottom of own 137w range (band bottoms at -34.6%))
     cross-signal: flow signals align NZD/USD up: daily %, 20d return
  price & change   (as of 2026-08-20, prior 2026-08-19)
    close       0.59358
    change      +0.00629  (+1.071%, +62.9 pips)
    gap         +0.00633  (+63.3 pips)  (cross-session move on continuous FX; not a feed gap)
  range            (as of 2026-08-20)
    range       0.00306  (30.6 pips)
    close pos   5.2% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-08-20)
     20d MA     0.58589   price above by +1.31%
     50d MA     0.57942   price above by +2.44%
    200d MA     0.58355   price above by +1.72%
    price > all MAs
    stack: 20d > 200d > 50d
  volatility       (as of 2026-08-20)
    20d stdev   0.522% daily ≈ 8.3% annualized (×√252)   (23rd pct of own history, since 2003 (5856 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  0.88× (0.522% vs 0.593% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-08-20)
    ATR(14)    0.00512  (51.2 pips)
    ATR%        0.86%   (22nd pct of own history, since 2003 (5862 obs))
    range/ATR   59.7%
  52-week range    (as of 2026-08-20)
    high        0.60933   (-2.58% from high)
    low         0.55842   (+6.30% from low)
  momentum         (as of 2026-08-20)
    RSI(14)     63.50   (87th pct of own history, since 2003 (5862 obs))
  returns          (as of 2026-08-20)
     5d return  +1.27%
    20d return  +2.09%
    60d return  +0.74%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       0.93%   (from 2003-12-01)
    ZIRP-2009        0.84%
    tightening-2015  0.64%
    ZIRP-2019        0.61%
    tightening-2022  0.73%
    easing-2024      0.59%
  positioning      (as of 2026-08-11)
    next COT     as of 2026-08-18 (released ~that Fri, later if a holiday intervenes)
    net         -33,461 contracts (net short NZD)
    net % OI    -34.6%
    net%OI range -34.6% … +28.5% (own 137w)
    w/w change  -3,171
  rate differential (NZD–USD policy)
    NZD (RBNZ_OCR)        2.50%  (set 2026-07-08, announced target)
    next RBNZ             2026-09-02  (13 days)
    USD (EFFR)            3.63%  (as of 2026-08-19, daily effective)
    next Fed              2026-09-16  (27 days)
    differential    -1.13%  (base−quote)
  cross-asset corr (26w weekly returns; async daily closes cap the magnitude)  (as of 2026-08-20)
    vs DXY      -0.77
    vs S&P 500  +0.45
    vs DXY beta -1.05 (26w)