Bitcoin (BTC) 52-week position: the current reading and its track record
BTC’s current 52-week position reading and what that signal has historically been followed by.
BTC is currently at 40.6% of its 52-week range, as of 2026-10-16.
This page covers Bitcoin (BTC) — its current 52-week position reading and the measured historical record of what BTC 52-week position extremes were followed by.
How to read this. These figures are measured only on the four crypto assets currently covered by this site — coins that survived and grew large. Many coins from the same years collapsed or disappeared and would not be here to measure. Read every number below as a property of this surviving sample, not a universal rule, and never as advice.
All figures are ‘excess’ returns — measured relative to each instrument’s own historical drift, not relative to the market. This is not alpha and not a market-beating claim; it isolates the signal from the instrument’s background trend. Measured from the first day each signal appeared (not its most extreme point), so it reflects what was knowable in real time.
Measured across BTC’s 52-week position history from 2016 to 2025: 29 high-extreme episodes. High-extreme readings were followed by -0.18% excess at 5 days and +3.19% by 20.
On this signal, the most recent episode in which BTC was at a high extreme began on 2025-10-03.
Outcomes are measured for episodes up to 2025-10-03, the most recent with enough later days to score. The current reading above is from a later date, 2026-10-16.
When BTC was at a high extreme
Across 29 past episodes where BTC was at a high extreme on this signal, the close 20 days later beat BTC’s own trailing drift by 3.19 percentage points on average (38% of episodes beat drift).
| horizon | excess vs own drift | beat-drift rate | episodes with a complete horizon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | +0.48% | 48% | 29 |
| 5 days | -0.18% | 34% | 29 |
| 20 days | +3.19% | 38% | 29 |
When BTC was at a low extreme
BTC has only 7 past episodes on this signal — too few to characterise on their own. Showing the pattern across all four crypto assets instead.
Across 36 past episodes where a crypto asset was at a low extreme on this signal, the close 20 days later lagged the crypto asset’s own trailing drift by 11.60 percentage points on average (28% of episodes beat drift).
| horizon | excess vs own drift | beat-drift rate | episodes with a complete horizon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | -0.13% | 31% | 36 |
| 5 days | -3.59% | 25% | 36 |
| 20 days | -11.60% | 28% | 36 |
See BTC’s current price, RSI, moving averages and 52-week range →