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Bitcoin (BTC) RSI(14): the current reading and its track record

BTC’s current RSI(14) reading and what that signal has historically been followed by.

BTC’s RSI(14) is currently 46.5 (34th percentile of its own history), as of 2026-10-16.

This page covers Bitcoin (BTC) — its current RSI(14) reading and the measured historical record of what BTC RSI(14) extremes were followed by.

7030
RSI(14) history — last 365 days (0–100 scale; dashed lines mark the 70 overbought / 30 oversold bands).
Show recent RSI(14) values
Most recent 30 daily RSI(14) readings (the tail of the chart series above).
dateRSI(14)
2026-09-1751.0
2026-09-1863.6
2026-09-1964.3
2026-09-2063.9
2026-09-2173.9
2026-09-2272.2
2026-09-2365.5
2026-09-2465.5
2026-09-2564.1
2026-09-2665.0
2026-09-2765.1
2026-09-2860.9
2026-09-2961.3
2026-09-3060.9
2026-10-0164.7
2026-10-0262.9
2026-10-0363.7
2026-10-0468.5
2026-10-0564.8
2026-10-0663.6
2026-10-0752.8
2026-10-0846.9
2026-10-0950.2
2026-10-1051.5
2026-10-1154.3
2026-10-1247.0
2026-10-1351.9
2026-10-1446.6
2026-10-1548.7
2026-10-1646.5

How to read this. These figures are measured only on the four crypto assets currently covered by this site — coins that survived and grew large. Many coins from the same years collapsed or disappeared and would not be here to measure. Read every number below as a property of this surviving sample, not a universal rule, and never as advice.

All figures are ‘excess’ returns — measured relative to each instrument’s own historical drift, not relative to the market. This is not alpha and not a market-beating claim; it isolates the signal from the instrument’s background trend. Measured from the first day each signal appeared (not its most extreme point), so it reflects what was knowable in real time.

Measured across BTC’s RSI(14) history from 2014 to 2026: 45 overbought episodes and 36 oversold episodes. Overbought readings were followed by +3.08% excess at 5 days and +9.18% by 20; oversold readings were followed by +3.49% excess at 5 days and +0.82% by 20.

On this signal, the most recent episode in which BTC was overbought began on 2026-09-21; the most recent in which it was oversold, on 2026-06-30.

Outcomes are measured for episodes up to 2026-09-21, the most recent with enough later days to score. The current reading above is from a later date, 2026-10-16.

When BTC was overbought

Across 45 past episodes where BTC was overbought on this signal, the close 20 days later beat BTC’s own trailing drift by 9.18 percentage points on average (69% of episodes beat drift).

BTC forward excess return vs its own drift after overbought RSI(14) readings, by horizon.
horizonexcess vs own driftbeat-drift rateepisodes with a complete horizon
1 day+0.81%49%45
5 days+3.08%58%45
20 days+9.18%69%45

When BTC was oversold

Across 36 past episodes where BTC was oversold on this signal, the close 20 days later beat BTC’s own trailing drift by 0.82 percentage points on average (42% of episodes beat drift).

BTC forward excess return vs its own drift after oversold RSI(14) readings, by horizon.
horizonexcess vs own driftbeat-drift rateepisodes with a complete horizon
1 day+1.77%61%36
5 days+3.49%61%36
20 days+0.82%42%36

How BTC RSI(14) is measured

RSI(14) is the 14-day Relative Strength Index, a momentum gauge bounded between 0 and 100, computed from BTC’s daily closing prices using Wilder’s smoothing. On this page a reading of 70 or above is treated as overbought and 30 or below as oversold; each historical episode is counted from the first day the threshold was reached (not its most extreme point).

Forward results are measured as excess versus BTC’s own trailing drift, not versus the market. This page reports the readings and what historically followed them; it does not interpret any level as a signal to buy or sell. See the methodology and reproducibility notes for the full calculation and sample rules.

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