Ethereum (ETH) daily move: the current reading and its track record

Data as of 2026-10-16

ETH’s current daily move reading and what that signal has historically been followed by.

This page covers Ethereum (ETH) — its current daily move reading and the measured historical record of what ETH daily move extremes were followed by.

How to read this. These figures are measured only on the four crypto assets currently covered by this site — coins that survived and grew large. Many coins from the same years collapsed or disappeared and would not be here to measure. Read every number below as a property of this surviving sample, not a universal rule, and never as advice.

All figures are ‘excess’ returns — measured relative to each instrument’s own historical drift, not relative to the market. This is not alpha and not a market-beating claim; it isolates the signal from the instrument’s background trend. Measured from the first day each signal appeared (not its most extreme point), so it reflects what was knowable in real time.

Daily move showed no measurable forward signal. Across the full sample, episodes on this measure were followed by returns statistically indistinguishable from each instrument’s own drift — this is reported as a null result rather than left out.

When ETH was at a high extreme

Across 61 past episodes where ETH was at a high extreme on this signal, the close 20 days later beat ETH’s own trailing drift by 1.25 percentage points on average (49% of episodes beat drift).

ETH forward excess return vs its own drift after high-extreme daily move readings, by horizon.
horizon	excess vs own drift	beat-drift rate	episodes with a complete horizon
1 day	-0.47%	52%	61
5 days	+0.82%	46%	61
20 days	+1.25%	49%	61

When ETH was at a low extreme

Across 64 past episodes where ETH was at a low extreme on this signal, the close 20 days later lagged ETH’s own trailing drift by 6.91 percentage points on average (36% of episodes beat drift).

ETH forward excess return vs its own drift after low-extreme daily move readings, by horizon.
horizon	excess vs own drift	beat-drift rate	episodes with a complete horizon
1 day	-0.24%	52%	64
5 days	-3.50%	39%	64
20 days	-6.91%	36%	64

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