MSFT daily move: the current reading and its track record
MSFT’s current daily move reading and what that signal has historically been followed by.
This page covers Microsoft (MSFT) — its current daily move reading and the measured historical record of what MSFT daily move extremes were followed by.
How to read this. These figures are measured only on instruments currently covered by this site — a set of companies that survived. Signals that appear to have ‘worked’ on the downside are conditioned on these names having recovered; a company that fell and never came back would not be here to measure. Read every number below as a property of this surviving sample, not a universal rule, and never as advice.
All figures are ‘excess’ returns — measured relative to each instrument’s own historical drift, not relative to the market. This is not alpha and not a market-beating claim; it isolates the signal from the instrument’s background trend. Measured from the first day each signal appeared (not its most extreme point), so it reflects what was knowable in real time.
Daily move showed no measurable forward signal. Across the full sample, episodes on this measure were followed by returns statistically indistinguishable from each instrument’s own drift — this is reported as a null result rather than left out.
When MSFT was at a high extreme
Across 151 past episodes where MSFT was at a high extreme on this signal, the 150 with a complete 20-session forward window lagged MSFT’s own trailing drift by 2.45 percentage points on average (39% of those 150 beat drift).
| horizon | excess vs own drift | beat-drift rate | episodes with a complete horizon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 session | -0.18% | 44% | 151 |
| 5 sessions | -1.01% | 44% | 151 |
| 20 sessions | -2.45% | 39% | 150 |
When MSFT was at a low extreme
Across 158 past episodes where MSFT was at a low extreme on this signal, the close 20 sessions later lagged MSFT’s own trailing drift by 1.68 percentage points on average (45% of episodes beat drift).
| horizon | excess vs own drift | beat-drift rate | episodes with a complete horizon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 session | +0.12% | 52% | 158 |
| 5 sessions | +0.24% | 51% | 158 |
| 20 sessions | -1.68% | 45% | 158 |
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