V's current 20d return reading and what that signal has historically been followed by.
This page covers Visa Inc. (V) — its current 20d return reading and the measured historical record of what V 20d return extremes were followed by.
How to read this. These figures are measured only on instruments currently in our coverage — a set of companies that survived. Signals that appear to have 'worked' on the downside are conditioned on these names having recovered; a company that fell and never came back would not be here to measure. Read every number below as a property of this surviving sample, not a universal rule, and never as advice.
All figures are ‘excess’ returns — measured relative to each instrument’s own historical drift, not relative to the market. This is not alpha and not a market-beating claim; it isolates the signal from the instrument’s background trend. Measured from the first day each signal appeared (not its most extreme point), so it reflects what was knowable in real time.
Measured across V’s 20d return history from 2009 to 2026: 20 overbought episodes. Overbought readings were followed by -1.91% excess at 5 sessions and -1.83% by 20.
On this signal, V was most recently overbought on 2026-07-02.
Measured-outcome coverage runs through 2026-07-02 — the most recent episode with forward sessions scored; the current reading above is later, as of 2026-08-21.
When V was overbought / at a high extreme
Across 20 past episodes where V was overbought on this signal, the close 20 sessions later lagged V’s own trailing drift by 1.83 percentage points on average (35% of episodes beat drift).
| horizon | excess vs own drift | beat-drift rate | episodes with complete horizon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 session | -0.85% | 15% | 20 |
| 5 sessions | -1.91% | 30% | 20 |
| 20 sessions | -1.83% | 35% | 20 |
When V was oversold / at a low extreme
V has only 16 past episodes on this signal — too few to characterize on their own. Showing the all-stocks pattern instead.
Across 2135 past episodes where a stock was oversold on this signal, the 2132 with a complete 20-session forward window beat a stock’s own trailing drift by 0.23 percentage points on average (53% of those 2132 beat drift).
| horizon | excess vs own drift | beat-drift rate | episodes with complete horizon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 session | +0.22% | 49% | 2135 |
| 5 sessions | +0.33% | 52% | 2135 |
| 20 sessions | +0.23% | 53% | 2132 |
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