Microsoft (MSFT): 20-day return +26.09% (98th pct)

On 2026-08-20, Microsoft (MSFT) closed at 481.15 USD, down 0.65% on the day. Its 20-day return of +26.09% is in the 98th percentile. Its RSI(14) of 61.61 is in the 74th percentile of its history since 1986. It trades at 64.5% of its 52-week range. Its RSI last entered overbought 21 days ago (2026-07-30) and oversold 56 days ago (2026-06-25). It is trading above its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Its 20/50/200-day moving averages are 468.01 / 418.13 / 431.48 USD, with price +2.81% / +15.07% / +11.51% against them. Its moving averages stack 20-day > 200-day > 50-day. Its 52-week range is 349.2–553.72 USD; it closed 13.11% below the high and 37.79% above the low. The high was set 296 days ago (2025-10-28) and the low 56 days ago (2026-06-25). It is 13.38% below its all-time high, set 385 days ago (2025-07-31). Its 20-day volatility is 3.809% daily, in the 95th percentile of its history since 1986. Its realized volatility across horizons is 5-day 1.425%, 20-day 3.809%, 60-day 2.994%, and 120-day 2.408% daily. Annualized, these are 5-day 22.6%, 20-day 60.5%, 60-day 47.5%, and 120-day 38.2%. Its 14-day average true range (ATR) is 12.68 USD, 2.63% of price. It has returned -3.17% (16th pctile) over 5 days, -3.74% (18th) over 10 days, +26.09% (98th) over 20 days, +15.65% (78th) over 60 days, +22.51% (75th) over 120 days, and -5.61% (18th) over 252 days. Against the S&P 500, its weekly-return beta +1.58 / correlation +0.53 (52-week); beta +1.67 / correlation +0.52 (26-week). Relative to the S&P 500, it has returned +22.95% (20-day), +14.03% (60-day), and -24.80% (252-day). Its weekly-return correlation to the change in the US 10-year TIPS real yield is -0.20 (52-week); -0.31 (26-week). Next earnings are scheduled for 2026-10-28.

=== MICROSOFT (MSFT)  (USD) ===
  price & change   (as of 2026-08-20, prior 2026-08-19)
    close       481.15
    change      -3.16  (-0.652%)
    listing     Exchange: NASDAQ, Currency: USD
  range            (as of 2026-08-20)
    range       4.66
    close pos   35.4% of range
  moving averages  (as of 2026-08-20)
     20d MA     468.01   price above by +2.81%
     50d MA     418.13   price above by +15.07%
    200d MA     431.48   price above by +11.51%
    200d MA slope  -1.23% over 20 sessions (falling)
    price > all MAs
    stack: 20d > 200d > 50d
    20d MA last crossed above 50d MA: 2026-08-03   (17d ago)
    20d MA last crossed above 200d MA: 2026-08-11   (9d ago)
    50d MA last crossed below 200d MA: 2026-01-21   (211d ago)
  volatility       (as of 2026-08-20)
    20d stdev   3.809% daily ≈ 60.5% annualized (×√252)   (95th pct of own history, since 1986 (9955 obs))
      5d vol     1.425% daily ≈ 22.6% annualized (×√252)   (47th pct of own history, since 1986 (9970 obs))
     60d vol     2.994% daily ≈ 47.5% annualized (×√252)   (90th pct of own history, since 1986 (9915 obs))
    120d vol     2.408% daily ≈ 38.2% annualized (×√252)   (76th pct of own history, since 1986 (9855 obs))
    vs easing-2024 avg  2.25× (3.809% vs 1.696% era avg)
  ATR              (as of 2026-08-20)
    ATR(14)    12.68
    ATR%        2.63%   (57th pct of own history, since 1986 (9961 obs))
    range/ATR   36.8%
  relative volume  (as of 2026-08-20)
    RVOL        0.53x  (today vs 20-day average volume)
    pctile      5th pct of own history, since 1986 (9955 obs)
  52-week range    (as of 2026-08-20)
    high        553.72   (-13.11% from high)   [2025-10-28, 296d ago]
    low         349.20   (+37.79% from low)   [2026-06-25, 56d ago]
    drawdown    -13.38% from all-time high, 385d ago (2025-07-31)
    max drawdown (10-year, close-basis) -37.56% (2021-11-19 343.11 -> 2022-11-03 214.25, 349d peak-to-trough); recovered 2023-06-15 (224d after trough)
  momentum         (as of 2026-08-20)
    RSI(14)     61.61   (74th pct of own history, since 1986 (9961 obs))
    last overbought   21d ago (2026-07-30)
    last oversold   56d ago (2026-06-25)
  MACD             (as of 2026-08-20)
    MACD(12,26,9)   +21.34 (below signal)   signal +24.08   hist -2.74
  returns          (as of 2026-08-20)
      5d return  -3.17%   (16th pct of own history, since 1986 (9970 obs))
     10d return  -3.74%   (18th pct of own history, since 1986 (9965 obs))
     20d return  +26.09%   (98th pct of own history, since 1986 (9955 obs))
     60d return  +15.65%   (78th pct of own history, since 1986 (9915 obs))
    120d return  +22.51%   (75th pct of own history, since 1986 (9855 obs))
    252d return  -5.61%   (18th pct of own history, since 1986 (9723 obs))
    YTD return  -0.51%
  volatility by rate-era
    pre-crisis       2.56%   (from 1986-03-13)
    ZIRP-2009        1.62%
    tightening-2015  1.42%
    ZIRP-2019        1.91%
    tightening-2022  1.94%
    easing-2024      1.70%
  real-yield sensitivity (weekly returns vs weekly Δ in 10Y TIPS real yield, DFII10)  (as of 2026-08-19)
    vs real yield (Δ) -0.31 (26w)
    vs real yield (Δ) -0.20 (52w)
  S&P 500 market factor (weekly returns)  (as of 2026-08-20)
    vs S&P 500  beta +1.67  corr +0.52  (26w)
    vs S&P 500  beta +1.58  corr +0.53  (52w)
    vs S&P 500  +22.95% rel (20d return)
    vs S&P 500  +14.03% rel (60d return)
    vs S&P 500  -24.80% rel (252d return)
    vs Nasdaq 100  beta +0.85  corr +0.41  (26w)
    vs Nasdaq 100  beta +0.94  corr +0.48  (52w)
    vs Nasdaq 100  +23.35% rel (20d return)
    vs Nasdaq 100  +18.30% rel (60d return)
    vs Nasdaq 100  -30.50% rel (252d return)
    vs XLK (Information Technology)  beta +0.59  corr +0.37  (26w)
    vs XLK (Information Technology)  beta +0.70  corr +0.46  (52w)
    vs XLK  +23.49% rel (20d return)
    vs XLK  +16.75% rel (60d return)
    vs XLK  -45.59% rel (252d return)
  earnings horizon
    next earnings 2026-10-28  (69 days)