FX Daily — 2026-06-29

FX daily report for reference date 2026-06-29. Covers 11 instruments with daily price action, momentum (RSI), volatility (ATR), 52-week range position, positioning, and the central-bank decision horizon. Facts only — reporting, not advice.

CROSS-PAIR SNAPSHOT  (as of 2026-06-29, config order)

           close   day %    RSI (pct)   52wk  20d ret (pct)  pos net%OI (pct)
EUR/USD  1.13856  +0.21%   30.6 (4th)   8.6%  -2.26% (15th)      -2.0% (41st)
GBP/USD  1.31971  +0.07%  36.2 (12th)  22.2%  -1.89% (20th)      +2.5% (23rd)
USD/JPY  161.787  -0.01%  74.2 (97th)  99.0%  +1.53% (71st)     -22.5% (25th)
USD/CHF  0.81007  -0.06%  68.5 (95th)  87.1%  +3.61% (94th)     -12.7% (41st)
AUD/USD  0.68962  -0.06%   27.1 (2nd)  55.8%   -3.96% (9th)     +18.2% (82nd)
USD/CAD  1.41898  -0.08%  75.5 (98th)  92.4%  +2.85% (92nd)     -24.3% (30th)
NZD/USD  0.56407  -0.05%   27.5 (2nd)  11.1%   -5.70% (4th)      -22.1% (9th)
EUR/GBP   0.8627  +0.16%  45.0 (34th)  11.4%  -0.38% (42nd)      -6.3% (88th)
EUR/HUF  351.794  -0.24%  43.8 (31st)   6.3%  -0.50% (39th)
USD/HUF   310.47  -0.13%  56.7 (71st)  20.3%  +2.44% (77th)
GBP/HUF   409.55  -0.11%  49.1 (47th)  10.6%  +0.32% (54th)
CHANGES (vs prior session)
  EUR/USD  RSI 30.6 — crossed above 30 (oversold boundary)
  USD/JPY  new 52wk high (161.955)
NOTABLE TODAY  (most extreme vs each pair's own history; surprise = distance from each pair's own median — a deep-oversold reading scores as high as a deep-overbought one — not a trading signal)
  USD/JPY  52wk position 99.0% of range (52wk)                    · surprise  98
  USD/CAD  RSI(14) 75.49                (98th pct, since 2003)    · surprise  96
  AUD/USD  RSI(14) 27.13                (2nd pct, since 2006)     · surprise  96
  NZD/USD  RSI(14) 27.46                (2nd pct, since 2003)     · surprise  96
  EUR/USD  RSI(14) 30.62                (4th pct, since 2003)     · surprise  92
market risk (VIX)  (as of 2026-06-30)
  level       17.55
  1yr range   13.47 … 31.05 (252d)
=== CENTRAL BANK HORIZON (for pairs at historical extremes) ===
  (days remaining from reference date 2026-06-29)
  >> RBNZ  2026-07-08  (9 days)   · cross-link: NZD/USD (RSI(14) 2nd pct)
  >> BoC   2026-07-15  (16 days)   · cross-link: USD/CAD (RSI(14) 98th pct)
  >> ECB   2026-07-23  (24 days)   · cross-link: EUR/USD (RSI(14) 4th pct)
  >> Fed   2026-07-29  (30 days)   · cross-link: EUR/USD (RSI(14) 4th pct), USD/JPY (52wk position 99.0% of range), AUD/USD (RSI(14) 2nd pct), USD/CAD (RSI(14) 98th pct), NZD/USD (RSI(14) 2nd pct)
  >> BoJ   2026-07-31  (32 days)   · cross-link: USD/JPY (52wk position 99.0% of range)
  >> RBA   2026-08-11  (43 days)   · cross-link: AUD/USD (RSI(14) 2nd pct)