FX Daily — 2026-07-03

FX daily report for reference date 2026-07-03. Covers 11 instruments with daily price action, momentum (RSI), volatility (ATR), 52-week range position, positioning, and the central-bank decision horizon. Facts only — reporting, not advice.

CROSS-PAIR SNAPSHOT  (as of 2026-07-03, config order)

           close   day %    RSI (pct)   52wk  20d ret (pct)  pos net%OI (pct)
EUR/USD  1.14227  +0.39%  40.4 (21st)  13.9%  -1.64% (22nd)      -2.0% (41st)
GBP/USD  1.33387  +0.45%  52.0 (55th)  39.2%  -0.66% (38th)      +2.5% (23rd)
USD/JPY  161.449  -0.67%  57.5 (69th)  91.8%  +0.91% (62nd)     -22.5% (25th)
USD/CHF  0.80441  -0.59%  56.0 (71st)  76.7%  +1.97% (82nd)     -12.7% (41st)
AUD/USD   0.6916  +0.35%  35.9 (12th)  58.1%  -3.03% (14th)     +18.2% (82nd)
USD/CAD  1.41903  -0.19%  70.8 (96th)  92.5%  +2.04% (85th)     -24.3% (30th)
NZD/USD  0.56929  +0.31%  38.7 (18th)  21.4%  -3.02% (16th)      -22.1% (9th)
EUR/GBP   0.8561  -0.05%   30.6 (3rd)   4.5%  -1.02% (28th)      -6.3% (88th)
EUR/HUF  352.642  -0.63%  46.4 (39th)   7.9%  -0.27% (44th)
USD/HUF  309.131  -0.89%  51.9 (57th)  17.7%  +1.62% (70th)
GBP/HUF   412.38  -0.43%  54.6 (65th)  15.3%  +0.89% (62nd)
CHANGES (vs prior session)
  USD/JPY  RSI 57.5 — crossed below 70 (overbought boundary)
NOTABLE TODAY  (most extreme vs each pair's own history; surprise = how far the reading sits from the pair's own median, 0–100 [0 = at median, 100 = an own-history extreme; = 2×|percentile − 50|] — symmetric, so a deep-oversold reading scores as high as a deep-overbought one — a magnitude, not a trading signal)
  EUR/GBP  RSI(14) 30.56                (3rd pct, since 1999)     · surprise  94
  USD/CAD  RSI(14) 70.76                (96th pct, since 2003)    · surprise  92
market risk (VIX)  (as of 2026-07-03)
  level       15.93
  1yr range   13.47 … 31.05 (252d)
=== CENTRAL BANK HORIZON (for pairs at historical extremes) ===
  (days remaining from reference date 2026-07-03)
  >> BoC   2026-07-15  (12 days)   · cross-link: USD/CAD (RSI(14) 96th pct)
  >> ECB   2026-07-23  (20 days)   · cross-link: EUR/GBP (RSI(14) 3rd pct)
  >> Fed   2026-07-29  (26 days)   · cross-link: USD/CAD (RSI(14) 96th pct)
  >> BoE   2026-07-30  (27 days)   · cross-link: EUR/GBP (RSI(14) 3rd pct)